Refractories to 2014

US demand to increase 8% annually through 2014
US demand for refractory products is projected to increase 8.0 percent annually to $3.0 billion in 2014. Gains in demand will be driven by recovery in US crude steel production, which plummeted significantly between 2004 and 2009, and in the production of nonmetallic mineral products such as glass and cement. Growth will also be supported by improvements in refractory technologies themselves, which promote the use of more technically sophisticated, better performing and higher priced products. These trends, which bolster demand in value terms, will cause volume growth to lag somewhat.

US increasingly becoming a net importer
During the historical period, the US has run both trade surpluses and trade deficits in refractories. In 2009, US refractory producers were forced to aggressively seek overseas markets for their products to combat recessionary demand levels domestically, accounting for a net trade surplus amounting to five percent of shipments by value. However, longer term trends indicate the US is increasingly becoming a net importer as supplies and sources for refractory products and minerals shift offshore and as the sophistication of imported foreign refractory products increases.

Nonclay refractory growth to outpace clay refractories
Of the two broad categories of refractory materials, nonclay refractories will account for 68 percent of demand by value in 2014. These materials are becoming the products of choice among refractory end users. A wide assortment of nonclay refractory formulations have been developed that are cost-effective in specific and general applications. Consequently, gains in nonclay refractory demand will be faster than for clay refractories. Nonetheless, clay refractories are still basic and viable commodities, important in many industrial processes requiring elevated temperatures. Their relatively low cost and performance help them maintain a significant market presence.

Bricks, shapes to remain dominant refractory form
Although all product forms are expected to benefit by recovery in major US refractory consuming markets, bricks and shapes will remain the dominant product form, expected to account for 56 percent of total demand by value in 2014. This product form is particularly bolstered by increases in demand for precast refractory product shapes, but it also offers users performance advantages and reduced heat-up time. Monolithics are expected to be the fastest growing product form as they offer end users the economic advantage of extending the time span between full refractory brick relinings.

Metals markets to dominate growth, market share
Metals markets, as they recover from extremely low levels of output in 2009, will dominate growth in US refractory demand. Through 2014, growth in refractory demand by value in these markets will average nearly 12 percent annually and account for 57 percent of refractories demand by value and 56 percent by volume. The manufacture of nonmetallic materials such as cement, glass and ceramics will remain the second largest end use market and account for 15 percent of refractory demand by value and 13 percent by tonnage.

Study coverage
These and other findings are contained in Refractories, a new Freedonia industry study available for $4800. It presents historical demand data for the years 1999, 2004 and 2009, plus forecasts for 2014 and 2019 by refractory form, material and end-use market. The study also considers market environment factors, evaluates company market share data and profiles 26 competitors in the US industry.

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