World Electric Lighting to 2014

Global demand to rise 4.5% annually through 2014
World demand for electric lighting is projected to climb 4.5 percent annually through 2014 to $38.5 billion. Product sales will be driven by an acceleration in economic and personal income growth, and supported by a strong rebound in global motor vehicle output. A pickup in construction activity will also contribute to market advances. Increases will be even stronger in price-adjusted terms, averaging 7.1 percent per year through 2014. Overall electric lighting prices are expected to drop as compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) and light-emitting diode (LED) costs decline further and these products replace other lighting types, dampening dollar gains.

Developing countries to be fastest growing markets
Market gains in developing countries will outpace electric lighting sales in the US, Western Europe and Japan, fueled by healthy economic growth, ongoing industrialization efforts, increased manufacturing output, new household formation activity and rising standards of living. China alone will account for 47 percent of all additional product demand through 2014, strengthening its position as the largest electric lighting market in the world. Growth is also expected to be healthy in India and in lower-volume markets such as Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Turkey and Egypt. Although sales advances will not be nearly as strong as in developing areas, electric lighting demand in developed parts of the world will climb as well through 2014, bolstered by a strong upturn in automotive industry output after a period of decline. Sales of electric lighting in developed areas will also be stimulated by an acceleration in economic growth and higher per capita income, leading to a pickup in consumer spending and renewed fixed investment activity.

LED, CFL lighting to be fastest growing products
LED (or solid-state) lighting devices will record the fastest market gains of any major product segment through 2014. Historically, demand for LEDs used in lighting applications has been restrained by both high product prices and technical deficiencies (such as quality and diffusion of light) that limited their usefulness. However, the rapid rate of technological advances is dramatically improving their performance capabilities and resulting in substantial reductions in cost, which will lead to their use in a growing number of applications now served by other lighting products. CFL demand will expand at the next fastest pace, spurred by governmentled efforts to phase out use of energyinefficient general service incandescent lamps in many areas, with compact fluorescents generally being the replacement product of choice.

Motor vehicle, manufactured goods to lead market gains
The structures market -- which includes lighting products used in residential and nonresidential buildings, as well as in applications like street and highway lighting -- is the larger of the two major markets for electric lighting, accounting for 71 percent of all product sales in 2009. However, motor vehicle and manufactured goods electric lighting demand will post faster gains through 2014, driven by renewed strength in motor vehicle production. A generally favorable outlook for other types of vehicular equipment and an acceleration in personal consumption expenditures growth as world economic conditions improve will also help boost manufactured goods lighting demand.

Study coverage
This new Freedonia industry study, World Electric Lighting, is priced at $5900. It presents historical demand data (1999, 2004, 2009) plus forecasts for 2014 and 2019 by product, market, world region and major country. The study also considers market environment factors, evaluates company market share and profiles 39 global industry competitors.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION xi

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT 4
General 4
World Economic Overview 5
Recent Historical Trends 6
World Economic Outlook 8
World Demographic Overview 12
Population 12
Households 14
World Personal Consumption Expenditures 15
World Construction Expenditures 17
Residential Building 19
Nonresidential Building 22
Nonbuilding 23
World Manufacturing Outlook 25
World Motor Vehicle Trends 27
Motor Vehicle Production 28
Motor Vehicles in Use 31
Access to Electricity 33
Technology Trends 37
Pricing Patterns 40
Environmental & Regulatory Issues 43

III. WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND 48
General 48
Regional Overview 49
Demand 50
Production 55
International Trade 57
Demand by Product 59
Fluorescent 62
Compact 64
Other 65
Incandescent 67
Conventional 70
Halogen 71
Light-Emitting Diode 73
High Intensity Discharge & Other 77
HID 79
Other 80
Demand by Market 82
Structures 84
Residential Building 87
Nonresidential Building 88
Nonbuilding 89
Motor Vehicles & Other Manufactured Goods 90
Motor Vehicles 92
Other 93

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